Lock-down science of Modi versus corona’s trick in India – Should India worry more about economy and unemployment crisis?

The interview of Dr Raman R Gangakhedkar, the senior scientist at Indian council of Medical Research (ICMR) to NDTV, a reputed English news channel raises more concerns and worries about our countries economy and the acute unemployment crisis than about novel corona.  https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-80-per-cent-cases-asymptomatic-matter-of-concern-medical-research-body-icmrs-scientist-t-2214799?pfrom=home-topscroll

According to the ICMR scientist, 80% of the people turned positive for novel corona are asymptomatic.  Based on the contact tracing epidemiological rule book, testing of people is being followed based on the likely contact chain of the positive case. 

The R₀ method is a reverse format where the contact details of the positive persons are traced reversely and the tested for the virus and then quarantined. 

Would this method work effectively for India in identifying all those positive cases of corona is a million dollar question?  The above epidemiological method is nothing but conduct tests on all those who directly and or indirectly came in contact with the person and likely to have contracted the virus.  The above method consciously excludes the susceptibility factor of different individuals in the given population or contact list. 

Another aspect also we must carefully consider in a country like India.  The inanimate objects used by the positive person of corona if left ignorantly in public place and through such artefacts someone has contracted the virus, in all probability would fall outside the gamut of testing based on contact tracing or contact chain of the positive case.

 

The person who contracted the virus though such artefacts may not have any direct contact with the already proven positive case and hence such person (s) getting skipped from testing is quite high.  If such individuals carries virus but show any symptoms, the situation become all the more difficult because in all means, such people will be seen normal and healthy but may be asymptomatic carries of the virus.  Even one such individual is sufficient to spread the virus the many in the population. 

When 80% of the people tested positive for corona remain asymptomatic in India, how are we going to prevent the spread of the virus in our country.  Should we lock down the country and quarantine all Indians or should we help those vulnerable / highly susceptible groups, quarantine them and prepare to provide adequate medical support to all of them, if needed?  Today we know very well that who are the most vulnerable or high risk group of corona. 

We do not have any clear data on the likely percentage of asymptomatic carrier of novel corona as when they may turns to become COVID 19 and what is the actual progression time? 

Is it possible for the government to go for random testing in different population in India for corona positivity?  If the findings of such random testing show alarmingly high positive cases, what is the way forward for the country?

A true pathogen or secondary or tertiary pathogen follows the rule of attacking only the vulnerable group? The scientific revelation about novel coronavirus clearly suggests / raises several doubts over the primary pathogen status of novel coronavirus.   Should we lock down entire country, kill the life and livelihood of millions, destabilize the economy, create acute unemployment pandemic and finally call such grandsire exercise as the only measure to save life?   

Lock down at best can only minimize the spread of the virus for the time being and cannot eliminate the virus.  But fortunately the government has got a safety valve or gasket that 80% of the positive cases are asymptomatic.  If we exclude this large group of asymptomatic cases, the likely number of positive cases of corona with COVID 19 will look small statistically.  If we project only such number subsequently, the government can beat its chest that lock down has really worked and reduced the number of COVID 19 and spread of the virus. 

Do we know how many of the asymptomatic individuals become COVID 19 patients and when or how soon? 

Epidemiological test norms, doubling time of the viral spread and ground reality that prevails in India, all the three aspects exist in India as three parallel lines.   

The epidemiological norms may remain same for all countries, but the doubling time of the virus in our population may differ greatly due to high versus least to no susceptibility of different individuals, population density, socio-economic disparity, educational status etc.   

The ground reality that prevails in India is, major proportion of Indians are poor, uneducated, living with bare minimum income and facility, already burdened with abundant non-communicable and third world disease, have to work at least 15- 20 hours a day for one squire meal a day….

We cannot prevent the spread of coronavirus in India.  The lock down exercise is quite cruel, brute and ineffective. 

Anyway the great proportion of the asymptomatic cases of corona if excluded in due course of time to oblivion, government and policy makers can celebrate the success of lock down. 

But the big question is will the south west monsoon so kind and graceful? If south west monsoon from June onwards triggers second or third corona wave in India, what option government has to deal such situation? 

The only way we can eliminate corona from India is destroy the economy of India and kill the livelihood millions, rest will happen automatically, corona too would vanquish along with many poor Indians.