‘One India epidemiology formula’ may give 0.05% infection rate of coronavirus, plants not man has to worry in Modi’s India

BJP since 2014 till date promoting the ethos of ‘One India’ obviously fearing that India should not remain as federal structure but the states must kneel down to the whims and fancy of the central government.  Therefore BJP may want to bulldoze the diverse culture, religious practices, plurality, language, ethnicity etc., in India and then wants to make India a total Hindu rastra. 

Why don’t the same government devise and use one India epidemiology formula to calculate the real devastation of novel coronavirus instead of going for case or infection fatality rate?  Such statistics may stare at the government and may mock the senseless lockdown.

Before entering into the core theme, let us ask and get some clarity from ICMR about whether ICMR had ever gone around village after village or house after house to test the presence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or Mycobacterium leprae in people either by antibody test or by antigen or culture and then quarantined all those positive people, declared the entire area as one cluster or containment, isolated the zone out of bounds to people to prevent the spread the pathogen?

 

Scientists may argue that Mycobacterium may not contract that fast as novel coronavirus but treating tuberculosis is much more challenging than self-limiting coronavirus infection, in most cases.

Has the medical body in India ever recommended isolation of cutaneous tuberculosis patients from the society? 

Has the ICMR ever tested the faecal coliform levels of the water that majority of the Indians drink and tested Salmonella typhi or Hepatitis B and other deadly enteric pathogen?

Has ICMR ever tested the blood of millions of people for Malaria parasite at species level and contained those positive cases, kept them inside a mosquito net so that mosquito would never get the blood meal from those positive cases and then spread the disease?

Listing more such deadly pathogens and asking what measure ICMR or the GREAT MODI government has taken to contain all those infections would be difficult in one single article. 

Why we have given novel coronavirus alone such an important status? Why all those positive people were tortured with sacrilege and isolation in the name of quarantine?

Is novel coronavirus that deadly to India? 

The text book epidemiological formula may show different story about case fatality, infection fatality, R0 value etc.  But so far the story about novel coronavirus is highly fictitious, fallacious and hypochondriac. 

We must apply Modi’s one India epidemiology formula to understand the real picture.   

India’s population is about 135 crores. Over 7 lakh people have been tested positive for the virus so far and only a few in the above group have developed COVID 19. 

Therefore we should calculate the factual figure of novel coronavirus infection in India by simply using the one India formula of epidemiology.  We should use the total corona positivity by RT-PCR versus total population (7 lakh/135 crores).  The positive rate of novel coronavirus in India then would be 0.05% as on date. 

Imagine the percentage of COVID 19 and associated mortality in the above number would be abysmally small.  The objective of the article is not meant to belittle human life but to show some light to our government and to tell how the lockdown has destroyed India’s economy, life and livelihood of millions, created never solvable unemployment crisis, acute job loss, hopelessness, agoraphobia, destruction of democracy, rein of all pervasive invisible autocracy, dictatorial ruling, police brutality etc.

Today it looks like everybody wants novel coronavirus or in other words, nobody can survive without novel coronavirus.   

Power politics and not real science is directing the theme of the pandemic and the measures taken. 

ICMR appears to have bended its science on vaccine development and clinical trial to fulfil may be the ‘atmanirbhar’ bharat rhetoric of Modi and hence wants to rush-hush vaccine trial and wants to bring out the vaccine for use before August 15 of this year so that Modi can once again play with his words to Indians while hosting our national flag on Independence day. 

All most every scientist and every research institution today wants to engage only in research on novel coronavirus.  Everybody wants to develop drug or vaccine, everyone wants to look at other person whether he or she goes around without mask, maintains social distancing etc.  Like an eagle, the officials are hovering over our head to know anyone of us is positive so that immediately they can stamp us and put us inside the quarantine chamber. 

Based on ‘one India formula of epidemiology’ of BJP, the percentage of coronavirus positivity in India is far too insignificant.  It looks like, not men but plants (botanical wealth) are at greater risk in Modi’s India due to novel coronavirus. 

Today most of the laboratories, scientists, Sanyasis etc., everyone wants approval for conducting clinical trial of their herbal recipes to fight the virus starting from viral elimination at 100% to boost immunity to improve wellness to …….  Several households are procuring neem leaves, basil leaves and curcuma to be kept in the house may be to scare away the virus. 

IRONICALLY THE SAME MEDICAL BODY THAT APPROVES ALL IMMUNE BOOSTERS TO MANAGE THE PANDEMIC IS ONLY HAS RECOMMENDED THE USE OF STEROID FOR LIFE THREATENING COVID 19 WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY AN IMMUNE SUPPRESSANT. 

PARADOX IS THY NAME, BUT WHOSE NAME IS ONLY THE QUESTION.

It looks like, in Modi’s India, to fulfil his Atmanirbhar sloganeering, several plants are going to be exploited to contain the novel coronavirus.  The village healing practices in India is up the ante to give a new life to occultism and faith centric healing practices which Modi wants to sensationalize and then nationalize.  Surprisingly science has agreed to be the sacrificial lamb of such mission.

Soon Modi may recommend some village healing recipe as replacement even to high end surgery.  

It is clear, in India, not human being must worry about novel coronavirus, the plants that must worry about their existence due to the virus.

We must thank our defence force for their tireless service to our country.  From that perspective the Leh optics of our PM needs to be appreciated.  But the acute question that remains unanswered is why the same Modi is not offering any balm or Laddu to millions of unemployed youths, people who lost their job, suffered salary cut, MSME shuts the operation, people who lost their livelihood etc., all due to the imposition of heartless lockdown. 

Has Modi won the Mahabharat war against novel coronavirus?

Sound rationale and scientific logic is there in using Modi’s one India formula of epidemiology to calculate corona infectivity in India. 

Novel coronavirus is highly contagious and infectious but not a deadly pathogen. 

The population dynamics of India is quite unique than any other country.  Socially, economically, politically, family level, religious level, caste level, occupational level, morality level, Indians are bonded closely with each other.  Further the population per unit area is also quite high in India.  The common external resource that is being shared by large number of people in public places is also quite high. 

Considering all the above aspects and by applying the one India formula of Modi, we have sufficient ground to speculate that by now the novel coronavirus must have spread to every Indian (at least 70%) but millions of people may not be showing any signs and symptoms of the disease or the infection might have been self-limited in them. 

What the PCR has actually detected so far may be the sample; reflecting the reality in as many as 60 or 70% of the population.  Even with high margin of error, still Modi’s one India formula of epidemiology would yield only a very insignificant proportion of positivity of the virus and in the rest; the virus must have been eliminated as soon as it had invaded them.   

It may not be novel coronavirus; the agoraphobia created by the so called collective voice that wants to save humanity from the virus only would have landed several people in hospitals and resulted in death.

We must really look at the real issue that is the vulnerability factors or comorbidity conditions and the government must address those medical issues instead of worrying about novel coronavirus.

Who knows soon the novel coronavirus may grow old and the WHO may rename the virus as old coronavirus and then may give retirement and the script would end as another cruel joke in the annals of our health science.